From: Subject: William J. Clinton Foundation "Speech: Remarks at the Goldman & Sachs Company 2004 Global Conference" Date: Sat, 5 Apr 2008 11:48:57 -0400 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C89713.083A7240" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C89713.083A7240 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.clintonfoundation.org/120304-sp-cf-gn-usa-sp-remarks-at-the-goldman-sachs-2004-global-conference.htm William J. Clinton Foundation = "Speech: Remarks at the Goldman & Sachs Company 2004 Global = Conference"
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Speech: Remarks at the Goldman = Sachs=20 & Company 2004 Global=20 = Conference

December 3,=20 2004
New York, NY

Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank = you very=20 much. Thank you. Thank you, Hank, for that = wonderful introduction. I probably should = quit=20 while I=92m ahead. [LAUGHTER] And thank = you, ladies=20 and gentlemen, for the warm welcome. I = admire Hank=20 Paulson very much for many things. His = interest in=20 Asia and our long-term relationship with = the Asian=20 Pacific community and particularly his = leadership=20 of the Nature Conservancy, some of you may = not be=20 familiar with it, but it is the principal = private=20 organization facilitating the preservation = of=20 precious natural land in the United = States, and=20 increasingly, in other places on the = globe. I=20 don=92t think I ever told Hank this. But = when I was=20 the Governor of Arkansas, we used the = Nature=20 Conservancy more than any other State in = the=20 country.

I also want thank the people at Goldman = Sachs,=20 many of whom have contributed to the work = of my=20 Foundation, and the work we do around the = world to=20 try to fight AIDS and extend economic = opportunity,=20 to promote education and citizen service = and to=20 try to bridge the racial and religious = divides=20 that still bedevil the world. And I want = thank=20 Goldman Sachs for hiring at least a dozen = people,=20 who worked in the White House and other = places in=20 the administration. I was worried about = what all=20 those young people were going to do when = we left=20 office. [LAUGHS] So I am deeply in your = debt.

We=92re going to have a Question and = Answer=20 period later and if you want to talk about = anything, including the last election, = I=92ll be=20 happy to do it. But I thought I would try = to speak=20 a little today from my own notes. Look, I = may have=20 to put my glasses on [LAUGHS] about where = we are=20 with economic policy and where we=92re = going. The=20 great thing about being a former President = is that=20 you=92re not running for anything. You = can=92t run for=20 anything and you can say whatever you = want.=20 [LAUGHS] The bad thing is you have no = power so no=20 one has to listen. [LAUGHS] My major power = today=20 is taking constituent requests for the = Junior=20 Senator from New York. [LAUGHS] I=92m a = Westchester=20 County Caseworker for Hillary and I, = [APPLAUSE]=20 and I=92ve enjoyed it a lot and I=92m very = proud of=20 her.

But I=92d like to talk a little bit = about where=20 we are economically and what the = government=92s=20 policy choices are, because I think it was = one of=20 a number of issues that were not really = discussed=20 in great depth in the last election. = Although it=20 was to be sure a substantive election. We = had=20 three good debates. It was so much = captured by the=20 psychology of the moment and the questions = about=20 Iraq and the continuing efforts against = terror,=20 that there wasn=92t a lot of discussion = about it. So=20 I wanted to just basically review what I = consider=20 to be some of the major decisions that = will have=20 to be made in the next four years.

Let me begin with 1992. When I was = elected=20 President, the country was experiencing = slow=20 growth. We=92d been kind of in and out of = a=20 recession. We had high interest rates = necessary to=20 keep the dollar from collapsing because = the=20 deficit had quadrupled in the previous The = debt=20 had quadrupled in the previous 12 years = and in=20 addition to the government deficit, we had = a huge=20 trade deficit. We adopted a strategy, = which was=20 spearheaded by someone else I stole from = Goldman=20 Sachs, Bob Ruben, of deficit reduction = designed to=20 lower interest rates and increase = investment;=20 expanding our exports; increasing our = investment=20 in education, training and new = technologies,=20 especially to facilitate defense = conversion,=20 because we were having a huge defense = downsizing=20 and there was a lot of work that had been = done in=20 defense technologies that had civilian=20 applications.

We also tried to get capital to = businesses and=20 individuals who were on the margins of = society. We=20 strengthened the enforcement of a banking = law,=20 called =93The Community Reinvestment = Act,=94 which had=20 been enacted in the 1970=92s and over 95% = of all the=20 money loaned under the CRA by 2000 had = been loaned=20 in the previous eight years. We increased = loans to=20 minorities and women through the SBA=20 exponentially, created the empowerment = zone and=20 later the new markets program to give = people more=20 financial incentives to invest in poor = areas,=20 doubled the earned income tax credit, = increased=20 the minimum wage and passed Welfare = Reform, all of=20 which contributed to a substantial = reduction in=20 poverty and an increase in workforce=20 participation.

Finally, we tried to remove the = barriers to=20 growth erected by the government for = social ends,=20 through Al Gore=92s reinventing government = program=20 and particularly though the use of more = market=20 mechanisms to achieve environmental goals. = By=20 2000, the country certainly not only = because of=20 government policy, but in part because of=20 government policy, had enjoyed a record = period of=20 growth with more jobs, more new businesses = and an=20 astonishing drop in poverty, and this was = due=20 primarily to government policy. A hundred = times as=20 many people moved out of poverty in the = eight=20 years in which I served as in the previous = 12=20 years.

We had a surplus. We had a program that = I left=20 in place, that if the interest savings = from the=20 surplus has been applied to Social = Security, it=20 could have been stabilized under the = present form=20 until 2053. Low inflation because we had = kept our=20 markets open, and among other things, we = were=20 buying about 35-40% of China=92s exports = with a=20 country having, at that time, about 22% of = the=20 globe=92s GDP.
Now it was interesting = there,=20 because there was a big article in the = paper today=20 about Chairman Greenspan and the head of = the=20 European Central Bank talking about the = rise of=20 Euro. In 2000, the Euro fell to 82 cents = to the=20 dollar and it was a terrible worry.

And there were already storm clouds on = the=20 economic horizon when I left office. There = were=20 problems with overbuilding in telecom and = in the=20 dot com markets, the NASDAQ. The telecom = problem=20 was fundamentally a problem of investments = being=20 made based on the, the late 1990=92s, the=20 mid-1990=92s, when utilization was going = up 500-700%=20 a year. And when it collapsed, utilization = was=20 still increasing 50-75% a year but not = enough to=20 absorb all the investment which had been = made.

We had also had a decade of zero growth = in=20 Japan. And Japan had reached clearly, I = thought,=20 the limits of conventional economic policy = and=20 deficit spending for dealing with this, = with=20 structural changes absolutely mandatory. = We also=20 had stagnation in the EU, where they had = strict=20 limits on how much annual deficit spending = could=20 be, but had not found a political response = that=20 could be implemented to changing the = social=20 contract in the EU enough to permit growth = and new=20 jobs to resume without giving up the = things that=20 make Europe special, like support, work = and family=20 life.
Into this mix, we had an election = in 2000=20 and President Bush ran on what I thought = was one=20 of the most politically brilliant slogans = I ever=20 heard, =93Compassionate Conservatism,=94 = which was a=20 code word to the swing voters that had = voted for=20 me, that had previously been voting for = Democrats,=20 that said, =93Hey, I=92ll give you = everything Clinton=20 did with a smaller government and a bigger = tax=20 cut. Wouldn=92t you like that?=94 [LAUGHS] = That=92s=20 basically what =93compassionate = conservative=94 was=20 designed to convey to the swing voters. = And the=20 election came out as it did.

In 2001, we did something = unprecedented, that=20 apparently looked safe because we had a = projected=20 surplus of $5 Trillion dollars. We adopted = a huge=20 tax cut, before we adopted a budget, = before we=20 knew what our income was going to be, = before we=20 knew what our expenses were going to be, = and=20 before we knew what our emergencies would = be.

Then on September the 11th, we had a = terrible,=20 unforeseen emergency. Combined with the = underlying=20 problems in telecom and the NASDAQ, 9/11 = slowed=20 the economy dramatically reducing = government=20 revenues at the very time when we had to = have a=20 big increase in government spending for = defense to=20 prosecute the conflict against Osama bin = Laden and=20 the Taliban in Afghanistan, and = substantial=20 increases in homeland defense. And later, = of=20 course, there were big increases to = prosecute the=20 conflict in Iraq and its aftermath.

In 2002 and 2003, we had modest growth = with few=20 jobs, most of which paid much less then = the jobs=20 which had been lost. Another round of tax = cuts=20 heavily weighted to capital and upper = income=20 people and we had a manageable rate of=20 unemployment in part because so many = people=20 dropped out of the workforce. If workforce = participation rates had been the same as = they were=20 in the late 90=92s, the unemployment rate = would have=20 been over 7%, but a lot of people just = quit=20 looking for jobs. We also resumed our = upward climb=20 in bankruptcy filings, and one of the most = disturbing things of all to me, there was = a=20 substantial increase in poverty.

In 2004, we had a huge, huge government = deficit=20 and a big trade deficit. We had to borrow = a lot of=20 money from somewhere. Increasingly our = deficit is=20 financed by foreign governments, = particularly the=20 governments of China and Japan, who want = to=20 prevent a precipitated fall in the dollar = so that=20 we will still be able to buy their = exports. We see=20 the Chinese currency remained tied to the = American=20 dollar with affects that were both = positive and=20 negative for us and for them. The Euro = went above=20 $1.30 with a lot of hand-wringing, which=20 continues.

And oil went above $50 a barrel = although it=92s=20 moderated now. It was quite interesting to = me to=20 see that the impacts of the increased oil = prices=20 were significantly less then they had been = in the=20 70=92s, partly because, except for = automobiles,=20 we=92re more than twice as efficient now = as we were=20 then in the use of our energy.

So here we are about to enter 2005. = President=20 Bush has a new term. Politics, at least = for the=20 moment, are on the back burner. What = should we do=20 about the current economic conditions? The = President wants to make the tax cuts = permanent and=20 apparently pass some more. There will be a = huge=20 request for supplemental funds for Iraq. = He just=20 announced that he wanted to send more = soldiers to=20 Iraq, a position I strongly support. If = you want=20 our soldiers to come home and that mission = to=20 succeed, we have to have enough people = there in=20 the short run to see that the elections = are=20 carried off and to more rapidly build the = security=20 forces of the Iraqis themselves but it = will cost=20 money. And we know that there are still = We, New=20 Yorkers, particularly know this. But we = know there=20 are still substantial specific unmet needs = in=20 homeland security.

We=92ve done a good job of correcting = the=20 problems which caused 9/11, so nobody can = hijack=20 an airplane with a razorblade anymore. But = that=92s=20 not what Osama bin Laden and the really=20 sophisticated terrorists do. They are = always=20 looking for the next crease in our = defenses and=20 I'll just give you three examples.

They bombed the African Embassies in = =9298,=20 al-Qaeda did, because in the countries = they used=20 (Kenya and Tanzania) there were = substantial=20 African Muslim populations, which would = give=20 support to people coming in. Because a lot = of the=20 Embassies, including the American = Embassies, were=20 in old Colonial structures, which were = right near=20 the street and because the countries were = poor and=20 had insufficient and insufficiently = trained=20 security forces to protect these buildings = from=20 things like a truck with a bomb coming up, = so it=20 was easy to do.

So after that happened, I appointed a=20 Commission and we scurried around and we = improved=20 Embassy security. But by then, they were = on to a=20 whole different thing. The next big target = was the=20 United States Cole, in the harbor at = Yemen. And=20 that was very interesting because the = little boat=20 that had the bomb that blew up the Cole, = was the=20 product of a lot of study of the behavior = of=20 American ships in port. In fact, as a = matter of=20 international law and able policy, we had = a right=20 to blow that boat up before it got close = enough to=20 do any damage, because it came without = appropriate=20 approval. But they studied this behavior = and they=20 realized that the American Navy could not = blow up=20 a boat that might just be a drunken = fisherman, who=20 had a bad night the night before and it = was no win=20 friends and influence people to be in a = foreign=20 port and then start shooting little boats = out of=20 the water. So they knew even though we = could do=20 it, we wouldn=92t do it, because we = wouldn=92t dream=20 that that would be the case. So the Cole = occurred.=20 And then adjustments were made by the Navy = and=20 their policy, and where they dock the boat = and how=20 people came into port and how they dealt = with=20 small ships, but they were on to something = else,=20 which was far worse, 9/11.

One of the things that I recommended to = the=20 9/11 Commission is whether or not they = unified all=20 these Intelligence agencies or not, they = should=20 get the brightest people from them and put = them in=20 a separate place, create a think tank and = start=20 thinking like the terrorists do. = =93What=92s the next=20 thing they=92re going to do?=94 Not the = last thing.=20 You have to fix the problem once you find = it. But=20 that=92s why I say we need specific = investments in=20 homeland security. I=92ll just give you = two that=20 affect New York, and to a lesser extent, = the rest=20 of the country.

There have been plans drawn, = engineering plans=20 for some time to reinforce all the subway = tunnels=20 here. It costs about $600 million dollars. = It=20 wasn=92t done so the tunnels had to be = closed under=20 Madison Square Garden when the Republicans = met in=20 convention here. Because if you blew up a = bomb in=20 the right place in a subway tunnel, you = could take=20 down the Garden, from the bottom. That=92s = money, in=20 my opinion, that ought to be spent. It = wouldn=92t=20 stop a bomb being set off in a subway and = the=20 people being killed on the train or in the = station, but it would stop the upward = impact of=20 all but the most powerful explosives.

Another and far more important example = is that=20 we only check 5% of the cargo containers = at our=20 ports and airports. If I were looking at = how to=20 harm the United States, I would being = asking=20 myself, =93Could I insert a biological, = chemical or=20 small-scale nuclear device into one of the = untolled hundreds and thousands of = containers that=20 come into this counter every day at our = ports and=20 airports. There was a security report = received by=20 the Congress a little over a year ago, = which said=20 that, =93You don=92t have to check them = all. And in=20 fact, if you check 10-20%, you would have = some=20 significant deterrent affect on this.=94 = Because all=20 these cargo containers are clearly marked. = You=20 know where they came from and it would be = pretty=20 easy to trace and the chances of catching = who did=20 it would be rather high. It costs a = billion=20 dollars per 5% of checks, for example. You = could=20 double the container checks for a billion = dollars=20 and you could quadruple it for $3 billion=20 dollars.

Under the Budget Rules of the Congress, = if the=20 White House doesn=92t propose this and the = Congress=20 does, they have to pay for it, either with = a new=20 tax, or some other revenue generator or = some=20 spending cut. The proposal made by David = Obey from=20 Wisconsin was defeated because it would = have=20 reduced the taxes of 200,000 people in = America=20 (including me) who paid-- It would have = reduced=20 the tax cut for the 200,000 people that = paid taxes=20 on over a million dollars, from an average = of=20 $88,000 to $83,000. I think it was a big = mistake=20 not to pass it because I think most people = in that=20 income group would have been glad to make = a $5,000=20 contribution to the security of 300 = million=20 Americans. But there were ideological and=20 political fears that it was the tip of the = iceberg=20 and it shouldn=92t be done so the White = House and=20 the House Republican leadership opposed = it, But we=20 have to find some way to do this. And the=20 election=92s over now and we need to find = a=20 practical way, in my judgment, to deal = with it.=20

Now let=92s talk about what our = economic options=20 are, and I=92ll just say what I think = should be=20 done. We could go on with this forever. We = could=20 make the tax cuts permanent. We could have = more=20 tax cuts. We could say, =93We have to = worry about=20 social security reform, and tax reform=94 = (and I=92ll=20 say more about that in a minute) and say, = you=20 know, =93The Chinese and the Japanese need = our=20 market, so they=92ll prop our dollar = up.=94 So we=92ll=20 just keep spending more than we are = willing pay=20 for and we=92ll not worry about the trade = deficit=20 and we=92ll not worry about the budget = deficit,=20 which we have far more control over. And = we just=20 know this=92ll go on forever, because they = can=92t=20 afford to let the dollar collapse because = then we=20 won=92t be able to buy our exports. So we = just know=20 that we alone, among all countries in the = world=20 (because trade is carried on in dollars = and=20 because we=92re the biggest market), we = can forever=20 act in a way different from our stated = values,=20 defying the laws of arithmetic and = different from=20 the way we would let anybody else = behave.

If Brazil or Mexico adopted the sort of = economic policy we have, they=92d be = punished in a=20 nanosecond. They couldn=92t get away with = it for a=20 long weekend. We can say, =93But we have a = right to=20 do this. This is the decision we made. We = want to=20 spend money and we don=92t want to be = taxed to pay=20 for what we spend and you guys got to buy = our=20 debt, because you can=92t afford for us = not to buy=20 your products.=94

But I think it would be better if we = had some=20 more control over our future and we tried = to get=20 some more equilibrium into the global = economy and=20 help, and not expect the Japanese and the = EU to=20 bear too much of the load from their = rising=20 currencies and not basically be dependent = on what=20 the Chinese decide to do on both buying = our debt=20 and valuing the _____. So I think we = should have a=20 serious deficit reduction plan.

The second thing I think we need is a = renewed=20 vigor to expand our trade relationships. = The=20 biggest trade surplus growth we had when I = was=20 President was with Latin America. We need = to=20 proceed with the Free Trade pact of the = Americas,=20 or within individual countries or regions = within=20 the Americas, if that is not possible. I = strongly=20 support what the administration is trying = to do=20 with the Caribbean Trade pact, for = example. I=20 think we need to give more support to = people at=20 the bottom of the economic ladder to get = them back=20 into the workforce to make them consumers = again,=20 to make them contributors again, taxpayers = again.=20

When I was President, we reduced the = Welfare=20 roles by 58% but very few of those people = were=20 just lost. Let me briefly back up and = say-- I=20 signed Welfare Reform legislation, which I = strongly supported, because it required=20 able-bodied people who could work, to = work. It=20 provided more support for education, = training,=20 child support and transportation and = reinstated=20 two things the Republicans tried to take = out, a=20 guaranty of food and medicine for low = income=20 families. However, the Bill did have one = provision=20 the Republicans wanted that I disagreed = with,=20 which was a five-year lifetime limit on = Welfare. I=20 thought that was a mistake because if = someone=92s=20 five-year lifetime limit ran during an = economic=20 downturn, they would be thrown off the = Welfare=20 rolls with no reasonable prospect of = getting=20 employment.

So what you see now is the Welfare = caseload=20 that stayed down during the present = economic=20 downturn, but the workforce participation = rate has=20 not risen, as they did when we raised the = minimum=20 wage and increased support for lower = income=20 people, particularly lower income parents = to go=20 into the workforce. We have to change = that,=20 because we=92ve got to get more people at = the=20 margins, into the workforce. That helps = our=20 economy as well as promoting social = justice. I=20 think we should be doing the same thing = around the=20 world.

The President went to Monterey, Mexico = last=20 year to the International Conference on=20 Development and proposed this Millennium = Challenge=20 Account, which was a pretty good idea, I = thought.=20 Because he said, =93We=92ll give more = money, but only=20 to countries that will use it = responsibly.=94 In=20 that sense, it was an extension of what we = did in=20 2000 with Global Debt Relief. =93We=92ll = give forgive=20 your debt if you=92re a poor country, but = only if=20 you put the money into education, = healthcare and=20 economic development.=94 And it=92s had a = very, very=20 positive impact. So I thought that the = idea that=20 President and the administration had was = good, but=20 we haven=92t spent much money. And we know = now that=20 there are proven strategies to reduce = poverty and=20 increase earners and therefore consumers = in the=20 developing world, that I believe need to = be much=20 more aggressively pursued.

The fourth thing I think we need to do = is to=20 ask ourselves a simple question, =93What = could be=20 the source of the kind of good, new high = paying=20 jobs in American in this decade that the = high=20 technology industry gave us in the decade = of the=20 90=92s? Where they comprised maybe 8% of = our=20 employment but contributed to 30% of our = growth.=20 An enormous increase in productivity, not = just in=20 the dot-com companies, but more = importantly in=20 traditional industries.

My major candidate is energy and the=20 environment. We know there=92s a $1 = trillion dollar=20 untapped market for energy conservation = and clean=20 energy products at today=92s level of = technological=20 development. We know we are very, very = close to=20 new breakthroughs which will exponentially = increase the size of that market.

I=92ll just give you a tiny example. I = just built=20 my Presidential Library and dedicated it, = in=20 Little Rock. We had a big facility that I = was=20 determined would avoid the primary = architectural=20 problem of other presidential libraries, = which is=20 that there=92s always a beautiful = entrance. (Like if=20 you=92ve been to the Kennedy Library, = where I.M. Pei=20 shaped it like a sailboat going out in the = Boston=20 harbor). There=92s that beautiful glass = atrium, then=20 the rest of it is dark.

Or if you=92ve been President Bush=92s = Library,=20 there=92s a really gorgeous rotunda you = walk into.=20 The rest of it is three yellow brick = walls. Why?=20 Because under the rules, we have to keep = all of=20 our documents forever, and they can never = be=20 exposed to ultraviolet light. But it=92s = very=20 difficult to have a museum which tells the = real=20 story of America and the world and our = transition=20 into the 21st Century, if you can=92t have = more=20 light. So what we did was build two = buildings. We=20 put the documents in a building that was = basically=20 brick and put half of it underground. Then = we put=20 the exhibit building up off the ground and = in=20 glass and steel and the like. But it meant = it was=20 going to be an energy-guzzler unless we = did some=20 things. Some we adopted We bought some = very=20 fine-grained glass, which blocked almost = all the=20 ultraviolet lights and a lot of the heat. = We put=20 tubing, gradian(?) tubing under the floor, = which=20 carried hot and cold water, which reduced = the need=20 for air conditioning and heat from = traditional=20 sources, and we put 308 solar panels on = top of the=20 document building. And in total, we = reduced the=20 traditional consumption of that very large = structure by a third. If I had more time = and a=20 little more money to figure it out, we = could have=20 reduced it by 50%.

All the solar panels were built in New = Jersey=20 by American workers. There is an unlimited = set of=20 options for doing this kind of thing. Of = all the=20 issues that were not discussed in the 2000 = election, in any detail at all, that will = affect=20 the lives of Americans, I personally = thought that=20 energy, global warming and the environment = topped=20 the list. We had three debates and if the = security=20 issue, an economic issue, an environmental = issue,=20 and there was one question in three = debates on it,=20 from the people who were doing it. I think = we can=20 really significant advance the American = economy=20 and also set an example, which will cause=20 different decisions to be made by China, = India and=20 others, in a way that benefits the economy = if we=20 do this right.

Finally, I think there are two or three = structural questions we have to ask, in = addition=20 to what we=92re going to do about deficit = reduction.=20 We still have a healthcare system that is = high=20 quality, but high cost and low coverage. = We spend=20 much, much more on administrative costs in = our=20 health system because of the way it=92s = financed=20 than any other country in the world, = between 8 11=20 cents on the dollar, as opposed to what we = ought=20 to be spending, which is 2 3 cents. And in = a=20 system that takes up roughly 15% of the = GDP,=20 that=92s a huge amount of money. So we = have to have=20 some serious thought given to that.

There were some good ideas advanced in = the last=20 campaign, one of which I had embraced but = couldn=92t=20 convince the Congress to do, which was to = let=20 people between the ages of 55 and 65, who = take=20 early retirement and lose their health = insurance,=20 pay their way into the Medicare program. = Another=20 was to let single people and young = families who=20 work for small businesses that don=92t = carry health=20 insurance buy into the Federal Employees=20 Healthcare program, which has a large = array of=20 choices, including a catastrophic plan at = low=20 cost, that young single people might want, = but has=20 very low administrative costs because we = have so=20 many people in the plan. But we have to = think=20 about that.

We also now will have to have some kind = of=20 significant Social Security reform, = because we=92ve=20 blown the surplus and we=92ve gone from a = projected=20 surplus to a projected deficit. Therefore, = the=20 plan that I left in 2000 is no longer = practically=20 operable. The big issue there, it seems to = me, is=20 what will be the economic impact of paying = the=20 transition costs? Because if you let = people, let=92s=20 say under 50, choose to put 2% or more of = their=20 payroll tax into investments, rather than = having=20 Social Security just buy government = securities for=20 everyone, then that will create a hole = more=20 quickly in the money we=92re paying to = Social=20 Security recipients now, because basically = the=20 money comes in and it=92s paid out. The = size of that=20 hole is variously estimated over a ten = year period=20 to be between $1-2 trillion dollars, added = to an=20 already significant debt.

Now yesterday there was a story in the = paper=20 saying that some of the people in the=20 Congressional leadership in the White = House were=20 not going to include this debt in our = annual=20 deficits because it basically was not an = annual=20 deficit. It was basically designed to make = the=20 Social Security system more stable over = the long=20 run. Nonetheless, we will be borrowing the = money.=20 Someone will have to finance the = borrowing. It=20 will have some impact on interest rates = and that=20 has to be thought through. But there are = ways to=20 phase that in, if that=92s what we decide = to do.

The other thing, is there=92s a lot of = talk about=20 tax reform, and I don=92t want to say a = great deal=20 about that now. But it seems to me if = there is=20 going to be a major overhaul in the tax = system, as=20 a practical manner, we ought to see if we = can get=20 a progressive back tax, because that would = help=20 America=92s export picture and not = discriminate=20 against American manufacturers and service = providers and exports and imports the way = our=20 current tax system does with all of our=20 competitors having of that. So I think = that can be=20 done. The question is, how to do it.

I am, on balance, reasonably = optimistic. A=20 divided government can work. When I was = President,=20 while the budget adopted in 1993, by 100% = with=20 Democratic votes, which probably helped to = cost us=20 the Congress in 1994, because everybody = likes to=20 talk tough on the deficit, and nobody = wants to do=20 anything about it) succeeded in reducing = the=20 deficit by 85%. That was done with = Democrats only.=20 But the Balanced Budget Bill of 1997, the = Welfare=20 Reform Bill of 1996, the NAFTA, GAF(?), = the=20 African Growth & Opportunity Act, the = debt=20 relief for poor countries, the Telecom = Reform=20 Bill, the new markets initiatives, all = those were=20 done a completely bipartisan basis. So if = we=20 basically are willing to give up the = campaign=20 rhetoric and the demonization of each = other and=20 sit down and go beyond ideology to = arithmetic, it=20 seems to me that we=92ve got a real chance = to get=20 some of these things done.

Ironically, one thing we didn=92t do = when I was=20 President, Social Security reform was = bipartisan=20 both in its support and opposition. I = believe that=20 the Chairman of the Ways & Means = Committee,=20 Bill Archer of Texas, who was a = conservative=20 Republican, and I were very close to an = agreement=20 on Social Security reform. And the then = Republican=20 Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich and = the=20 Democratic Leader, Dick Gebhart, both came = to us=20 and said, =93You can=92t do this. Our = members are too=20 scared.=94 So we had bipartisan support = and=20 bipartisan opposition. But even that, on = balance,=20 is a positive thing. Because now we = won=92t have any=20 choice but to do something now that the = deficits=20 are looming inevitably into the = future.

Let me just step back a moment and put = this=20 into the big picture. I am, on balance, = quite=20 optimistic about the near-term future of = the=20 world, if we take on the big problems. = Why? The=20 world we live in is more interdependent = than ever=20 before. Look at the kind of people who are = here=20 today. If we had this meeting 20 years = ago, it=20 would have been a different meeting.

But the interdependent world simply = means that=20 we cannot escape each other, that it is = full of=20 shared benefits and full of shared risks.=20 Terrorism is now no longer just a problem = of=20 people who live in the Middle East. But = the=20 economic benefits of the Internet may = benefit=20 small entrepreneurs in Bolivia. So the = trick is to=20 build a world where you increase the = impact of the=20 positive forces and diminish the impact of = the=20 destructive ones, to build a world in = which we=20 have shared responsibilities and shared=20 opportunities, shared benefits and where = everyone=20 has a chance. There are lots of = opportunities out=20 there.

The great Peruvian Economist, Fernando = De Soto,=20 with whom I work with in Uganda, = constantly=20 reminds me that the world=92s poor have $5 = trillion=20 dollars in uncapped assets, $5 trillion = dollars,=20 but because they are not titled to assets, = they=20 cannot be used as collateral for loans and = all=20 these countries can=92t build modern = financial=20 systems, like the United States built, for = growth.=20 But that=92s a great cause for hope, not=20 despair.

So what I want to say to all of you is, = whether=20 you=92re a Republican or a Democrat, = whether you=92re=20 an American or a citizen of another = country, our=20 real goal here ought to be trying to move = our=20 interdependent world to an integrated = global=20 community of shared responsibilities and = shared=20 benefits. If we keep that in mind, we can = have all=20 the intellectual disagreements in the = world, but=20 we will tend to focus on facts rather than = ideology and we will tend to ask ourselves = over=20 and over and over again, the question I = ask.=20 Whenever anybody asks me any question = about any=20 issue, I ask myself this simple question, = =93Will=20 this help to move America and the world = from=20 simple interdependence to more = integration, to=20 more shared responsibilities and more = shared=20 benefits?=94 On balance, even with all the = terrorists that we face, even with the = danger of=20 weapons of mass destruction, even with the = economic problems, even with the looming = tremor of=20 global warming, you should be = optimistic.

When I was a kid, we used to do drills = where=20 we=92d go to fallout shelters to avoid the = atom=20 bombs that we thought the Soviet Union = might drop=20 on the United States. Fallout shelters = were absurd=20 unless we could spend several hundred = years in=20 them. So the world is, on balance, still, = I think,=20 in much better shape than it was 50 years = ago, in=20 terms of the threats to our children=92s = future. And=20 the real question is whether we are = prepared to do=20 the hard work necessary to elevate the = good and=20 diminish the bad. Thank you very much.=20 [APPLAUSE]

QUESTION & ANSWER=20 SESSION

HANK PAULSON: Thank = you very=20 much, Mr. President. We really appreciate = it. A=20 few questions, I=92ll start with one, = which sort of=20 relates to the election, but is a little = broader.=20 Both of the U.S. political parties seem to = be at=20 least partially captive to their = polarizing wings=20 (if we can call it that). Do you see a way = for=20 either one of them to break out from this=20 constraint and broaden their mainstream=20 appeal?

PRESIDENT CLINTON: = Well, I=20 will answer that question, and you know = that I=92m a=20 Democrat, so I have to-- I=92m going to = give you=20 prejudiced answer. President Bush did face = a lot=20 of intensely personal criticism in this = election.=20 We had =93Fahrenheit 911=94 for example. A = lot of it=20 was quite specific and factual. Richard = Clark=92s=20 book, for example, who was the principal=20 anti-terror person for President Bush, for = me, and=20 he worked in the previous Bush and Reagan=20 administrations. But this was the = inevitable=20 result, in my opinion, of the successful=20 demonization campaigns waged by the = Republican=20 Reich over many years.

And it basically started in reaction to = the=20 1964 campaign, where Johnson defeat = Goldwater and=20 a lot of conservatives were really angry = about the=20 ad Johnson ran (with the little girl = walking=20 across the field and then the bomb going = off).=20 Barry Goldwater had advocated the use of = tactical=20 nuclear weapons in Vietnam and it became = morphed=20 into this ad.

So in 1968, we had our first election = that was=20 a heavily cultural election with President = Nixon=92s=20 campaign to the silent majority and Spiro = Agnew=20 called our side a lot of interesting = names, many=20 of which were unpronounceable. = [LAUGHS]

Then in =9272, we, the Democrats, help = by seeming=20 way out of the cultural mainstream. In = =9276,=20 President Carter won only because of = Watergate and=20 because he was a Southerner, and then only = by one=20 point.

Then in =9280, the cultural = conservatives resumed=20 their triumph with Ronald Reagan, whose = formula=20 basically has been adopted by President = Bush,=20 where Reagan was sunny and positive. And = all the=20 vicious work was done by the moral = majority and=20 groups like NCPAC and others, talking = about how=20 horrible Democrats were, they didn=92t = care life and=20 values and all of that, and it worked. And = more=20 and more white married Protestants = especially=20 voted for the Republicans.

Then in =9284, we didn=92t put up a = race really=20 because, if the economy=92s in good shape, = Vice=20 President Mondale thinks we should raise = taxes,=20 which is not a great campaign slogan. = [LAUGHS]

Then in =9288, we had a race where = Dukakis was=20 ahead but really understand the emotional=20 dimension of American politics and the = Bush=20 campaign just gutted him with the Pledge = of=20 Allegiance and Willie Horton.

Then in =9292, they tried to do it to = me. I don=92t=20 know if you remember this, but they tried = to There=20 were a few broad sides lobbied at me in = that =9292=20 campaign including the allegation that I = tried to=20 give up my American citizenship when I was = a=20 student and they had the John Majors = government=20 rooting around in my passport file, trying = to find=20 something. I was happy for them to do it = because I=20 knew it was a fool=92s errand.

But from the day I started, till the = day I=20 left, there was an attempt to = de-legitimize the=20 Presidency, me, in highly personal terms. = So our=20 people Then in 2000, in the Republican = primary,=20 President Bush won in South Carolina with = people=20 who were calling white conservative voters = to=20 remind them that John McCain had a black = baby. In=20 fact, Senator McCain had adopted a child = from=20 Bangladesh, one of the many reasons I = admired=20 him.

In New York, the Republicans for = President Bush=20 said that we should vote against John = McCain=20 because he was against breast cancer = research.=20 John McCain had a sister with breast = cancer. He=20 voted for all the national institutes of = health=20 appropriations. He had voted against the = defense=20 budget several times to protest ___ in it = and in=20 the defense budget, was a tiny program = that=20 Hillary and I put in, to investigate = breast cancer=20 among women in the military because their = rates=20 were so much higher than women at large. = That was=20 morphed into a total campaign in New York = about=20 how McCain was against breast cancer. So = the=20 answer to your question

Then in 2002, in the worst example of = all,=20 Saxby Chambliss, who ran for Senator from = Georgia,=20 like me had a deferment in Vietnam and = defeated=20 Max Cleland, who lost two legs above the = knee and=20 an arm in Vietnam, by running ads showing = Max=20 Cleland=92s face with Saddam Hussein=92s = because he=20 wasn=92t for the Homeland Security Bill = exactly as=20 President Bush had presented it. Now = President=20 Bush had opposed the Homeland Security = Bill for 8=20 1/2 months but they needed an issue = against the=20 Democrats to make us look unpatriotic, = because=20 two-thirds of us voted to give him the = authority=20 to go forward in Iraq and 100% of us = supported=20 Afghanistan, so they needed some way to = demonize=20 us. So they decided they=92d be for the = Homeland=20 Security Bill and put a poison pill in it, = which=20 was striping the job rights from 170,000 = Federal=20 workers who had nothing to do with = Homeland=20 Security. And then 24 hours later, if you = weren=92t=20 for that Bill just the way it was written, = you=20 were traitor. And it worked in Georgia = because=20 white, mostly white males who voted at=20 Presidential levels, were terrified after = 9/11 and=20 wanted to do whatever the President = said.

So the truth is they=92re like-- You = know, all of=20 you who have children know, you know, your = kid=20 will keep getting in the cookie jar, until = you=20 stop him or her. So as long as this works, = they=92ll=20 do it. So this year, our side had a belly = full and=20 you found this venom coming back at = President=20 Bush. And it=92s one of the reasons that = we had such=20 a high turnout among base Democratic = voters and=20 had a chance to win till the very end. So = I say=20 that the President now has a second term. = He can=92t=20 run for a third term. He needs to take the = lead in=20 walking the country back away from this = prefaces.=20 We were increasingly into identity voting. = We may=20 call it =93value voting=94 but it=92s an = identity=20 voting. Red State, Blue State, Republican, = Democrat. I=92ve got to vote for the home = team=20 because the other guys You know they see = us

It=92s like I talked to someone who was = visiting=20 with a devout evangelical Christian, who = was=20 canvassing in Eastern Pennsylvania for = Kerry. And=20 all these people, these Catholics whose = door he=20 was knocking on, saying, =93How can you be = for=20 Kerry?=94 And he said, =93Well, I think = his policies=20 are more moral.=94 And he said I had to = talk to them=20 for 45 minutes where they didn=92t think I = was=20 crazy, because they had put it in their = mind that=20 we were all Americans on one team or the = other. He=20 said it was like we were in two different = high=20 schools, and the Democrats were Beverly = Hills=20 90210 and the Republicans were good = old-fashioned=20 middle American people and so And you had = to root=20 for the Captain of your football team even = if=20 there was rough in the pasture, and = clipping and=20 unnecessary roughness, because the other = guys were=20 on the other team. That is really dumb way = to run=20 a country.

You know, everybody in this room is a = little=20 bit red and a little blue. That=92s what I = tried to=20 say in my Library dedication. = Conservatism, at its=20 very best, is about defining lines that = shouldn=92t=20 be crossed. And progressivism, liberalism, = at its=20 very best, is about taking down barriers = that are=20 no longer needed or shouldn=92t have been = erected in=20 the first place. Everybody whose lived any = length=20 of time knows that life, a sensible life = is a=20 combination of doing both. So yes, I hope = we can=20 do something about this. But it would be = very=20 difficult if I were a conservative = Republican to=20 convince me to stop doing this, because it = works=20 so well. As long as you keep getting = rewarded for=20 demonizing the other side and saying they = have no=20 values and don=92t believe in family and = all that=20 kind of stuff, it=92s very hard to get = them not to=20 do it because it works well. And what = makes it=20 work well in this moment, or has made it, = is 9/11=20 and the suspension of normal, critical = thinking.=20

But I hope and pray The President can = do it.=20 He=92s a great politician. He=92s a good = communicator.=20 He has great ability to connect to = ordinary people=20 and if he chooses, he can sort of lead us = back=20 from this prefaces, I think, and I would = certainly=20 be willing to do what I could to help. = Because I=20 just don=92t think it=92s good for = America.

When I was a Governor of my home state, = my vote=20 went up every year among Republicans and=20 Independents in the suburbs and went down = among=20 rural Democrats, who didn=92t think they = were=20 benefiting from my economic education = policies.=20 When I became President, all of a sudden I = was the=20 devil to all those people. I was exactly = the same=20 person I had been before. But the further = you get=20 away from where people live, the easier it = is to=20 turn you from a three-dimensional human = being into=20 a two-dimensional cartoon. It may be good = for=20 elections but it=92s a terrible thing for = America=20 and it=92s not good for the rest of the = world. So I=20 hope that we will have greater unity and = that the=20 President will, will push it. He can get = it, and=20 I=92ll certainly do what I can to = help.

QUESTION: Mr. = President,=20 here=92s another dilemma of you. The = United States=20 is home to 5% of the world=92s population = but we=20 control 50% of the world=92s wealth. How = should we=20 balance, on the one hand, the desire to = protect=20 jobs in the U.S. from the impact of global = outsourcing? And on the other, the need to = foster=20 economic growth and development among the = poor=20 nations of the world?

PRESIDENT CLINTON: = Well, if we=20 keep going like we=92re going, we won=92t = control 50%=20 of the world=92s wealth very long. You = know, because=20 you=92ve got to understand. This is one = issue where=20 now the Democrats are to the right of the=20 Republicans. I think these deficits are = madness. I=20 think giving me two tax cuts was nuts, and = spending more money. I just think it=92s = crazy. I=20 think financing my tax cut by borrowing = money from=20 the Chinese government (a country with the = per=20 capital is under $1,500 a year a person) = is crazy.=20 So we won=92t have to worry about = controlling half=20 the world=92s wealth very long if we keep = on doing=20 what we=92re doing.

But assuming that we would like to = continue to=20 be a wealthy country, I think first, we = have to=20 recognize we can=92t eliminate all = outsourcing and=20 shouldn=92t. Sometimes it just makes good = economic=20 sense.

On the other hand, to say that America = controls=20 50% of the world=92s wealth and has about = 21% of the=20 world=92s GDP obscures the fact that = America is not=20 a monolith. Hank and I were talking about=20 Hillary=92s work in Upstate New York, for = example,=20 where the economy is still, in many = places, in=20 great distress, because they haven=92t = been able to=20 modernize. I think the real answer is to = try to=20 look at the places in America, which need = help and=20 develop strategies to generate investment = and jobs=20 in those places without becoming a more=20 protectionist country.

I think on the trade front, I think-- = You know,=20 basically what we need to ask ourselves = is, =93How=20 much should we be open about the movement = of jobs=20 and goods and trade and all that with = countries=20 that are themselves more mercantilist than = we are,=20 in part because they=92re poorer than we = are. There=20 are like a lot of negotiations to be done = around=20 the edges here. But on balance, I don=92t = think=20 protectionism of any kind is a very good = answer. I=20 think what we need to do, however, is to = recognize=20 that if you want to have open markets, = then you=20 have to have a government that is active = in its=20 transition efforts to help continually = create new=20 investment and new job opportunities, = particularly=20 in the distressed areas. That is sort of = the role=20 of the government in a global world, in = the same=20 way that the role of government in the = rising=20 industrial revolution was to shave off the = rough=20 edges, to have labor laws that protected = children=20 and women in the workplace and had minimum = conditions for clean air and job safety = and all=20 that.

In this era, what government should be = doing is=20 to figure out how to help the people who = were left=20 behind by the changes. That=92s my theory, = and I=20 think if you=92re aggressive enough about = that, then=20 we can continue to have open government. = Because=20 otherwise I mean, open economic policy. I = just=20 don=92t think, over the long run, = protectionism=20 works for America and it=92s not fair for = the rest=20 of the world. It=92s just wrong. Those = people have a=20 right to make a living too.

QUESTION: We=92re = going to go to=20 a question from Europe.

AUDIENCE QUESTION: = President=20 Clinton, you addressed in your opening = remarks=20 that this is a broad group of people.=20 Approximately 40% of the people come from = outside=20 of the United States and a good chunk of = that from=20 Europe. It=92s clear that the relationship = between=20 the United States and Europe has seen some = strain.=20 How do you-- What would you like to see = the U.S.=20 government do in mending those fences = while still=20 pursuing the legitimate interests of the = U.S.=20 Homeland Security and National Defense? = And in=20 turn, what would like to see those = historical=20 allies, most of them in Europe, in = Continental=20 Europe, do?

PRESIDENT CLINTON: = Well, first=20 of all, I think that it=92s important to = recognize=20 that the rift between the United States = and Europe=20 developed over Iraq, but not exclusively = over=20 Iraq. Let me just say a word about Iraq, = to my=20 fellow Americans. Whatever you think about = it,=20 I=92ve already said, whether you think we = should=20 have gone or not. We now all have a vested = interest in the success of the enterprise = because=20 if it fails, Iraq will become the = terrorist haven=20 that the government alleged it was before = they=20 came in. So we=92ve got to try to see that = it=20 succeeds.

And we have a lot of really wonderful = people=20 over there in the military, and in = non-military=20 roles, who are doing a very good job under = very=20 difficult circumstances. But if the = insurgency=20 were to, in the end, force us out with a = chaotic=20 Iraq left behind, it wouldn=92t be without = precedent. Since the end of World War II, = the only=20 insurgency that has been successfully put = down was=20 the one in Malaysia by the British and = that=92s=20 mostly because rather than malaise they = were=20 Chinese pursuing the insurgency, and = because the=20 British waited, hung in there 14 or 15 = years.

But on the Iraq thing, I think it=92s = important=20 that the Americans understand this. And I = think=20 this is one thing I think our side did not = do a=20 clear job in the campaign of. The thing = that made=20 the Europeans really mad about what we did = in=20 Iraq, had nothing to do with their being = for=20 Saddam Hussein. Although the French and = the=20 Russians did have historic ties with = Saddam=20 Hussein and preexisting contracts to = develop=20 future energy sources there, and = outstanding debts=20 they wanted paid.

But the Europeans that had no = connection with=20 that were upset because when the President = asked=20 the Congress to vote for authority to go = to war=20 with Saddam and to depose him, it was in = the event=20 he either refused to cooperate with the UN = Inspectors or was found to have weapons of = mass=20 destruction that he wouldn=92t give up. We = insisted=20 on deciding when the UN was through. When = the UN=20 Inspector, Hans Blix, who did a very good = job and=20 was very tough on Saddam, was begging for = three or=20 four more weeks to finish the job. And = that was=20 never made clear in this election. A lot = of people=20 had forgotten that. That=92s what I = thought our=20 error was.

Now not everyone on the other side in = Europe=20 had clean hands because of their = connections with=20 Iraq, as I said. But you can=92t go into = the UN and=20 say, =93I want you to do this but I will = decide when=20 you=92re finished, not you.=94 And that = really riveted=20 people and made them mad.

The other thing all of you need to = recognize,=20 the Americans here, is that it wasn=92t = just Iraq.=20 It was our unilateral decision to withdraw = from=20 the International Criminal Court, from the = Kyoto=20 Climate Change Treaty, from the = Comprehensive Test=20 Ban Treaty, from the ABM Treaty, not to = allow the=20 strengthening of the biological weapons=20 convention. I mean there was a whole slew = of=20 things that was rooted in a philosophical = view=20 deeply held in the administration by the = sort of=20 Cheney, Rumsfeld, conservative group that = we=20 should act alone whenever we can and = cooperate=20 when we need to. My philosophy was we = should=20 cooperate whenever we can and act alone = when we=92re=20 forced to, and we did on occasion, for = reasons=20 I=92ll explain, if you care about it.

For example, after having spent 53% of = the=20 whole world=92s money on, it was spent on = the de=20 mining and having to destroy two million=20 landmines. I refused to sign the = International=20 Landmine Convention because it was drafted = in a=20 way designed to undermine the security of = American=20 soldiers in the field. It was outrageous = what was=20 done and I wouldn=92t sign it. But I bent = over=20 backwards to do it. I signed all those = other=20 things, which then the current = administration got=20 out of, because they wanted to act alone = whenever=20 they could and act together when it helped = them.=20 You can=92t do that. You can=92t join a = club and say,=20 =93I=92ll stay in here and follow the = rules only when=20 it suits me.=94 So that=92s the source of = alienation=20 from America.

On the other hand, Europeans need to = recognize=20 that what they could do I think the = President is=20 finally, by the way, trying to heal a lot = of these=20 ____. I was encouraged when he went up to = Canada=20 to see the new Canadian Prime Minister. I = was=20 encouraged by some of the things that he = said down=20 in Chile at the Asian Pacific Leaders = Conference.=20 And I think what the Europeans is to = recognize=20 that they need to find ways to work with = us. We=92re=20 going to be given an enormous opportunity = in the=20 Middle East, but it=92s still a can of = worms=20 obviously, but there=92s a lot of = opportunity there.=20 And they=92ve got an opportunity to make a = contribution in Iraq now. They=92ll have = to put some=20 people at risk. They may be mostly = civilian=20 workers. But look, the more non-Americans = we have=20 in Iraq, the better it is for America. The = more=20 likely American soldiers are to live and = not been=20 seriously wounded. And the more likely the = mission=20 is to succeed.

Because whether it=92s the Osama bin = Laden or the=20 insurgency in Iraq, like all extremists, = they need=20 an enemy. And if they can make this look = like an=20 American occupation, some American = imperialist=20 thing, they=92ve got a better chance to = win. And we=20 do not have imperialist motives. We have = never--=20 We didn=92t go into Iraq for oil. I = don=92t agree with=20 when we did it. I=92ve already said that, = but we=20 didn=92t do it for the reasons they = alleged.

So I think what the Europeans ought to = be doing=20 is looking for ways to help America fight = terror,=20 to help the mission in Iraq succeed and to = multi-lateralize it and to look for other = ways for=20 us to cooperate. If we do that, I think a = lot of=20 this rift can be healed. Keep in mind, = over the=20 long run, Europe and the United States = have=20 absolutely no choice but to cooperate. = Even if=20 Europe becomes bigger than America, = because the EU=20 continues to integrate politically and=20 economically. We have the same values. We = have the=20 same economic systems. We have a shared = history=20 and we have the same interest in fighting = the=20 forces of international destruction. We = need each=20 other desperately, and so I believe the = rift will=20 get better because we have no choice. We = would=20 both be stupid to allow it to stay bad. =

AUDIENCE QUESTION: = President=20 Clinton, a question more germane to our = business.=20 And I=92m just going to read this question = the way=20 that it is written. Is it safe to say that = Elliot=20 Spitzer is still a long way from catching = all of=20 the rascals?

PRESIDENT CLINTON: All = the=20 what?

AUDIENCE QUESTION: All = the=20 rascals. If so, how should policymakers = strike the=20 balance between rooting up corruption and = the=20 chilling affect of regulation on economic = growth=20 and job creation?

PRESIDENT CLINTON: = Well, the=20 answer to the first question is I have no = idea.=20 [LAUGHS] You=92d know the answer to that = better than=20 me. [LAUGHS, LIGHT APPLAUSE]

Here=92s the deal. I think this is = probably=20 unpopular for me to say in this group. But = I know=20 Elliot Spitzer and I have a very high = opinion of=20 him personally. I realize that, that you = have to=20 have mixed feelings about some of the = actions that=20 he has taken, or a lot of you probably do. = But my=20 view of this is that America has been = richly=20 blessed by having the most sophisticated = and=20 powerful financial systems in the world, = and=20 they=92re open and entrepreneurial. They = encourage=20 people to take risks. And given the fact = that=20 markets are not always rational and what = when=20 they=92re going up, there will always be=20 opportunities for abuse. Some of this is = always=20 going to happen.

So my view is the way to keep it from = having a=20 chilling affect on people investing is for = people=20 who are in the industry to become = cheerleaders for=20 getting people who actually violate the = law=20 clearly and unambiguously out and having = them=20 dealt with appropriately. And for people = in=20 government, every time they bring an = action, to=20 say, over and over again, way over 95% of = the=20 people in this business are honest. This = is a very=20 great asset for New York and America. We = couldn=92t=20 do what we do without you. We wouldn=92t = be what we=20 are without you. And you think I=92m doing = something=20 that undermines the general health of the=20 industry, for goodness sakes tell me. But = there is=20 a law and here=92s a wrong-doer and this = is what I=92m=20 doing. That is I think-- The idea would be = to=20 isolate the problem from what=92s good and = both=20 sides need to work harder at that but I = have no=20 idea what the answer to your first = question is.=20 Keep in mind, I=92m retired. I=92m not = sure I would=20 have known the answer to that when I was = President=20 though. [LAUGHS]

AUDIENCE QUESTION: Mr. = President, one more question, and thank = you again,=20 for taking so much time. How do you size = up the=20 economic future of China and India, the = emerging=20 giants.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: I = think the=20 Chinese-- First of all, I like and admire = them, in=20 general, very much. I think that they have = a great=20 economic future but at some point they = will have=20 to, when they reach some level of growth = and=20 development, they will have to take on the = responsibilities of other economic giants, = like=20 the United States, and Europe and Japan. = That is=20 their currency will have to float to = reflect more=20 economic realities. They will have to = become=20 somewhat less mercantilist. And I think = that they=20 will also have to become more politically = open. I=20 like a lot of what I know about this new = Chinese=20 leadership. Obviously I knew Jiang Zemin = and=20 Zumon(?) Chi(?) much better and I thought = they=20 were the best possible team that China = could have=20 had at that moment in history. I very much = liked=20 the fact that this new group didn=92t go = into denial=20 on SARs. Well, they did a little bit and = then they=20 got out of it and they dealt with it. I = worked=20 with them on AIDS. My Foundation works on = AIDS in=20 China and they have been very forthright = in=20 meeting with AIDS advocates, not being in = denial,=20 doing things that I think are important. =
But=20 there=92s still too much political = repression in=20 China, I think, for the long-term health = of the=20 society and the success of the economy. I = think=20 it=92s because the worst Chinese nightmare = is=20 internal disintegration. You know, = countries are=20 like individuals. They all have their = fondest=20 hopes and their deepest nightmares and = their=20 deepest nightmares are all indebted in = their=20 family history. Mine are, aren=92t yours? = So China=92s=20 family history is a nightmare of internal=20 disintegration and as a result, they = over-react to=20 dissent, in my opinion, and to possible = discord=20 and developments in the Muslim west and in = Tibet=20 and obviously throughout the country, in = terms of=20 general political opposition. So I think = they have=20 come to terms to that, but otherwise, I = think=20 they=92re going to do very, very well

The Indians, I believe, ironically = could do as=20 well or better than China. They have the = largest=20 middle class in the world. They just had a = phenomenal election, which was totally=20 unpredictable, where the Congress party = replaced=20 the BJP, which had basically continued the = economic modernization program, started = under=20 Manmohan Singh, the Sheik, who is now the = Prime=20 Minister of India, for the Congress party. = And the=20 reason the BJP was voted out is that while = India=20 has the biggest middle class in the world = (over=20 300 million people by global standards), = more than=20 two-thirds of people are still poor, = living on=20 less than $500 a year.

So you had this very traditional = society that=20 cherishes its democracy an election where = a=20 majority of poor rural people embraced the = idea of=20 progress. They said, =93We want a piece of = this=20 action, and we know we can=92t all be in a = high tech=20 center, but surely there is something that = can be=20 done, to bring the benefits of technology = and=20 education and investment to us and to our = people,=20 so that we don=92t have dirty water in = sick children=20 and no schools and no future.=94 That was = very=20 hopeful.

Assuming that the Indians stay in that = frame of=20 mind, the major obstacle to India=92s = development is=20 the ridiculous amount of money they spend = on=20 defense every year because they=92re = fighting with=20 Pakistan over Cashmere. So I=92m very = encouraged, in=20 spite of all the problems, by the signals = that=20 have been sent by President Bashar from = Pakistan=20 and by new Indian government.

If they could get rid of Cashmere, then = you=20 could have an Indian subcontinent = cooperation=20 between Pakistan, Bangladesh and India = that I=20 think would be stunning. Let me just = remind you,=20 we have over 200 ethnic groups in America. = The=20 Indians and the Pakistanis rank in the top = ten of=20 per capita, education and income. And = they=92re only=20 poor at home because they=92re obsessed = with things=20 that keep them from having a positive = attitude=20 when they wake up in the morning. = They=92ve got to=20 get this Cashmere burden off their back. = If they=20 do it, there=92s almost nothing they = can=92t achieve=20 and that would be a very positive thing = for the=20 world.

One final point, however. This = reinforces the=20 imperative of America taking a new energy = course.=20 Within 30 years, both China and India will = be=20 emitting more greenhouse gases than the = United=20 States. By being in total denial about = global=20 warming and climate change, we have sent = them a=20 signal that the only way to get rich, stay = rich=20 and get richer is to pour more poison into = the=20 atmosphere. That=92s what we=92re telling = them and=20 they=92re determined to do it. We look = like=20 hypocrites when we want them included = within the=20 Kyoto framework when we are still the = world=92s=20 worst offenders. While we have about 21% = of the=20 world=92s GDP, we have 25% of the = world=92s greenhouse=20 gases. So that could derail them. Keep in = mindover=20 one in four people in the world now = already have=20 no access to clean water. It=92s a huge=20 environmental and health program.

So I think that India and China both = look great=20 in the future, but we need to both take = the lead=20 by cleaning up our house and working with = them to=20 help them deal with their very significant = environmental and energy challenges. Thank = you.

PAULSON: Mr. = President, thank=20 you very much for joining us. We = appreciate it.=20 = [APPLAUSE]

 
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